Has Australia Retained its Position as a Top Study Destination?

In October 2024, IDP released findings from Emerging Futures 6, Voice of the International Student. Conducted between 20 August and 16 September 2024, this latest research report highlighted how international students across the globe are perceiving their study destinations amid a period of ongoing policy change uncertainty and cost of living challenges. Australia has been no stranger to policy changes impacting its international education sector, particularly in 2024. As such, IDP has remained committed to monitoring student sentiment amid this challenging period.

Here we will evaluate data from Emerging Futures 6 to show how these policy updates are influencing and impacting international students’ study destination intentions. We will be specifically focusing on data relating to Australia and to students who have selected Australia as their first-choice destination. We will also be comparing this to corresponding data regarding competitor destinations as well as results from previous Emerging Futures surveys, to accentuate the unique impacts of Australia’s current policy landscape.

Check out this video of IDP UK, Chief Partner Officer and Chief Executive Officer, Simon Emmett discussing results from Emerging Futures 6.

In March 2024, findings from the Emerging Futures 5 research report showed Australia had dropped to second place when it came to the most popular first-choice destination, with the USA taking the lead. However, Emerging Futures 6 shows Australia has once more regained the top position, with the USA dropping to second, and the UK and Canada seeing decreased demand in the same period.

Australia’s position as a top destination remains robust, particularly compared with Canada which, according to respondents of Emerging Futures 4 from August 2023, was perceived as the most desirable destination However, the subsequent Emerging Futures 5 data from March 2024 saw Canada dip to third, behind Australia and the UK, most likely due to the implementation of international student caps in January of the same year. While the Australian Government has also announced it plans to introduce caps on the number of new commencing international students, the bill is currently adjourned in Federal parliament, as of November 2024.

What’s particularly noteworthy in this recent research is the rise of alternative destinations. Emerging Futures 6 has shown countries like Ireland, Germany, Singapore, France, and Malaysia are drawing increased interest due to improving perceptions and growing demand year-on-year. New Zealand, in particular, is making notable strides, with a consistent increase in student interest since March 2023 when we conducted our EF3 survey. As policy changes impact destinations like Australia and Canada, New Zealand’s comparative stability and welcoming policies are positioning it as an increasingly attractive option for international students.

IDP counsellors report that these policy shifts are reshaping conversations with students and parents, where migration options and visa concerns have become key topics.

“Students are reacting negatively to recent policy changes, with many reconsidering their plans to study abroad,” said one counsellor from IDP Philippines.

“Some are delaying their plans, waiting for a more stable and predictable policy environment.”

With visa restrictions tightening in traditional destinations like Australia and Canada, it’s unsurprising that students are showing greater interest in more stable and affordable alternatives.

However, other policy areas still appear attractive to international students. According to EF6 findings, Australia ranks highest for ‘Post-study work visa policies’ and second highest for ‘Graduate employment outcomes’. When it comes to ‘Cost of living’, ‘Quality of Education’ and ‘Value for money’, Australia doesn’t fare as well as the USA and the UK.

Concerningly, Australia ranks second-last when it comes to ‘International student policies’. With a multitude of changes in the Australian international education sector over the past 12 months – including a massive increase in the student visa fee, higher minimum English proficiency score requirements, new Genuine Student test, changes to the temporary graduate visa, slow visa processing under MD107, and the proposed introduction of caps to student numbers – the sentiment of current and prospective international students has been negatively impacted.

“The unpredictability of visa policies really adds pressure, making it quite hard to navigate studying here,” said one student from the Philippines who is currently studying in Australia.

Despite this, the fact that Australia remains the most popular first-choice destination should be reassuring for local institutions.

When asked how recent policy discussions about migration had been portrayed in their preferred form of media, most students who chose Australia as their first-choice destination said the portrayal had been ‘Neutral/Factual’ (around 38%), compared with the 22% who said it had been portrayed as ‘Negative’. Surprisingly, almost 30% said the news had been portrayed as ‘Positive’. When asked which information sources they use to follow news/politics in Australia, roughly 57% of respondents cited ‘Online news websites’ while 51% said YouTube and 48% said Instagram.

Despite ranking low for international student policies, it is perhaps because of this neutral – or positive – media portrayal of policy changes that Australia has managed to maintain its position as a top study destination.

In fact, certain government policies seem to not have as great of an impact as previously thought. When prospective and applied students were asked the extent to which Australia not having strict caps would influence their choice to study there, almost 75% said it would either have ‘Some influence’ or ‘No influence at all’, compared with the near 26% who said it would have a ‘Strong influence’.

Other aspects appear to be far more influential. When it came to ‘Ability to apply for post-study work visas/permits’, most respondents (roughly 56%) said it would have a ‘Strong influence’, compared with 33% who said it would only have ‘Some influence’. Furthermore, most respondents (46%) said a ‘Path to permanent residency’ would have a ‘Strong influence’ on their decision to study in Australia, compared with roughly 34% who said it would have ‘Some influence’. Meanwhile, roughly 41% said ‘Student visa fees and associated costs’ would have a ‘Strong influence’ and 44.2% said it would have ‘Some influence’.

Of the aspects which had the most ‘No influence at all’ responses, 36% of this cohort said, ‘A change in government’, 35% said ‘Ability to bring dependents/spouses regardless of the type of visa’, and another 35% said ‘Ability for dependents/spouses to work’.

These findings suggest that while prospective and applied students still largely want to study in Australia, the factors influencing this cohort most are the availability of post-study work visas and financial matters – such as required savings and fees.

EF6 is the first in the series to include data on students who have decided not to pursue their studies. Australia recorded the second-highest number of these ‘decliners’, just behind Canada. When asked why they were no longer choosing to pursue their international studies, almost half (49.4%) said the cost of tuition was now beyond their reach. This was followed by the roughly 35% of respondents who said the cost of living had become too expensive, as well as the 35% who said the cost of the student visa was too expensive.

Regardless of policy changes – bar those relating to the increased cost of student visas – it’s clear that the general cost of living, and those costs associated with undertaking studying abroad, remain significant deterrents for students wishing to study in Australia.

With cost-of-living challenges being felt around the world, many prospective international students are turning to more cost-effective, alternative forms of education delivery. These options include transnational education (TNE), online programs, and hybrid programs.

When asked what type of learning experience they were considering in order to obtain their international degree, most prospective respondents (69%) chose ‘Full on-campus learning at the main campus overseas location’. While this represented the vast majority of responses, it was a slight dip from the 72% of Emerging Futures 5 (EF5) respondents who chose the same option.

In fact, between the publishing of EF5 in March 2024 and the publishing of EF6, the number of prospective students who had Australia as their first-choice destination, and who preferred the option of full online study actually increased from 12.5% to 17.6%. Similarly, in the same period, the number of students from this cohort who were considering studying at a branch campus of an international institution in their home country increased from 13% to 15%.

That said, when it came to current students who had Australia as their first-choice destination – the majority of whom are undertaking traditional, on-campus study – most were quite positive about their experiences, with just under 70% saying their study experience in Australia had either met their expectations or had exceeded them. While this does further reinforce Australia’s robustness as a top study destination, the previous data also hints at a gradually increasing proclivity amongst international students to seek out alternative forms of education delivery.

This latest round of Emerging Futures data may provide reassurance to many in Australia’s international education sector. Not only has Australia regained top spot as the main preferred destination amongst survey respondents, but it was also ranked number one for post-study work visa policies and second for graduate employment opportunities.

Nonetheless, as a result of the ongoing effects of numerous policy changes which have impacted Australia’s international education sector, it’s unsurprising that respondents ranked it second last for ‘International student policies’. However, the data shown above has also exemplified Australia’s resilience throughout this challenging period. Most respondents said news – typically, from online sources – about policy changes were largely represented neutrally or factually, as opposed to negatively.

Perhaps most encouraging of all is the fact that most students who chose Australia as their first-choice destination said the proposed caps would only have ‘Some influence’ or ‘No influence’ at all, as opposed to the minority who said the caps would have a ‘Strong influence’. In fact, students said they were more influenced by the ability to apply for post-study work visas/permits, something for which they ranked Australia very highly.

It is important to remember that Australia, as a first-choice destination, did have a high number of students who were no longer choosing to pursue their studies, second only to Canada – another country grappling with significant policy change. Most of these students cited affordability as the reason behind halting their study abroad plans. While this may be concerning, subsequent data showing the gradually increasing number of students choosing to pursue cost-effective, alternative forms of international education indicates many aren’t giving up on their study abroad goals so easily.

“Current challenges are creating hurdles, but they have not extinguished the spark our students possess to transform their lives through international education,” said Tennealle O’Shannessy, IDP Education Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, when discussing EF6 findings.

Indeed, prospective students are still determined to study at and achieve their international qualifications through an Australian institution. With the passage of the Bill to introduce caps on the number of new enrolments of international students now very unlikely, and with a federal election set for 2025 with both main political parties still determined to manage student numbers but no specific alternative to caps as yet proposed, Australia’s status as a top study destination and how it is perceived by international students will need to be consistently monitored in the coming months.

The Emerging Futures 6 survey results contain a wealth of student data, which is available to Core Partners via their IQ dashboards. To find out about Emerging Futures and the benefits of being a Core Partner contact IDP today.