What does the return of a Trump Administration mean for UK and Ireland international student recruitment?

Following Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, IDP conducted a special post-election international sentiment survey. The findings were perhaps unexpected, with more than half of respondents reporting that their perceptions of the USA improved with Trump’s re-election.  

 However, in the months since, a number of major policy moves by the Trump administration have started to reshape the United States’ position in the eyes of its global neighbours. 

In today’s fast-moving environment, how might changes in U.S. policy affect the international recruitment landscape? And what opportunities - or risks - lie ahead for institutions in the UK and Ireland? 

Student search trends from IDP’s global sites provide an early indicator of application interest, typically twelve to eighteen months ahead of enrolment. These patterns reveal a noticeable decline in demand for the U.S. since February - a reversal after more than twelve months of consistent growth. 

Between October 2023 and January 2025, the U.S. had been gaining share, driven in part by a decline in Canada’s attractiveness following a series of restrictive international student policy announcements. In recent months, however, the UK has overtaken the U.S. in student search share, and the gap is growing. However, it’s important to note Australia is seeing a significant rise in market share too. New Zealand is also seeing a rise in interest. Ireland’s position, by contrast, remains relatively stable.  

These trends highlight that a decline in U.S. appeal does not automatically translate into gains for the UK and Ireland. Instead, global competition is intensifying, with students now considering a wider range of destinations than ever before. Insights from IDP’s Emerging Futures student surveys show that ‘non-traditional’ study destinations are attracting more student interest. With increasing options for TNE and branch campuses, students are seeking more affordable, flexible opportunities.  

What about the results of our U.S. post-election sentiment survey, which showed that 52% of students felt more positive about studying in the U.S. under Trump? At first glance, this may seem surprising. 

However, deeper analysis shows that many respondents come from countries with more politically conservative cultures. Respondents cited Trump’s leadership style and relationships with their home governments as positive factors. For students already at application stage or holding strong intent, practical policies often outweigh political ideology. 

But as we’ve seen with Canada, perceptions can change quickly. If future US policies affect key areas such as: 

• Post-study work rights 

• Visa access 

• Affordability 

then we may see a longer-term shift in student demand away from the U.S. 

Indeed, the first year of Trump’s previous presidency in 2017 saw sweeping travel bans for some Muslim-majority countries. US institutions saw international student demand for MBA programmes fall. According to US Open Doors data, Indian and Saudi Arabian F1 visa grants fell between 2016 and 2017. In the UK, Indian enrolments increased in the same period, according to HESA data. 

Insights from IDP’s Emerging Futures surveys consistently show that international students prioritise quality of education in study destination choice. The USA and the UK are both leaders in students’ perceptions of this key metric.  

In our latest release of IDP’s Emerging Futures survey, launched this week we examine what constitutes ‘quality of education’ in students’ minds. If the USA were to slip in this key metric, the UK may have an opportunity to strengthen its position by highlighting the quality and outcomes of its education offer to its advantage.  

Another important factor for students is post-study work opportunities, and graduate employment remains a key area where the UK can strengthen its appeal - particularly if uncertainty grows in the US market. 

The UK’s Graduate Route plays a pivotal role here. Continued collaboration between the sector and the UK Government is essential to secure this pathway and ensure clear, consistent messaging for students. 

In an increasingly volatile global landscape, the UK and Ireland have an opportunity to present themselves as stable, high-quality study destinations. However, stability alone won’t be enough. 

For the UK, there is ongoing work to be done in reinforcing the return on investment for students — particularly in terms of graduate career outcomes. 

For Ireland, addressing visa processing challenges could unlock greater potential. Currently, the process is perceived as time-consuming and opaque, which can be a barrier to otherwise interested students. 

The latest Emerging Futures survey results are out now! Download your copy to be among the first to access the insights shaping tomorrow’s international student market. 

Download the infographic report for more insights and read our press release: https://hubs.li/Q03kp78d0