Perceptions of Global Study Destinations: Emerging Futures 6

IDP’s Emerging Futures survey examines the attitudes, motivations and intentions of Prospective, Applied, Current, and Completed international students and builds on the findings of the Crossroads and New Horizons research series. Launching in October 24, our latest Emerging Futures research surveyed over 6,000 international students from 114 countries between 20 August to 16 September 2024.

2024 was a turbulent period for the international education sector, with changes of government and frequent policy announcements and policy changes causing students to alter their perceptions of destinations as they evaluated the opportunities available to them and the potential return on investment.

In this article we will explore the relationship between unstable policy environments and student choice.

In August 2024, 66% of our Emerging Futures 6 respondents were considering more than one study destination for their international higher education experience. This represents a 5% increase compared to August 2023 and 10% increase since August 2022. The number of students considering three destinations is at its highest, up from 15% in August 2022 to 20% in August 2024. IDP counsellors tell us they are seeing a marked rise in interest for alternative destinations such as New Zealand, Germany and other markets where the policy environments are more stable, and students have more certainty as to what is on offer and how they will be affected by policy.

First-choice destinations over time

Emerging Futures 6 (August 2024) saw a significant turnaround in student choice. We asked students what their first-choice destination was and Canada has dropped to fourth position, the first time it has been out of the top two first-choice destinations in an August poll since 2017. Canada suffered a year-on-year (YoY) decline of 9% when compared to Emerging Futures 4 (August 2023).

Australia is in top spot but suffered a 1% loss compared to August 2023. Meanwhile, the USA gained 4% YoY and sits in second for the Emerging Futures 6 cohort; although this represents a 1% and 1 position drop for the USA from Emerging Futures 5 in March 2024. The UK remains in third, losing 1% YoY. New Zealand gained 1% YoY. Interestingly, the number of respondents choosing other countries, such as Ireland, Germany Singapore, Malaysia and France, grew by 6%.

We know that both Australia and Canada saw significant policy changes during 2023/2024 and students applying to these countries are facing tighter visa controls, caps on new international students (although this has not yet been ratified in Australia) and changes to post-study work eligibility. Counsellors have noticed increased concern regarding visas and migration opportunities, particularly among parents. The impact of restrictions and uncertainty for the future are visibly affecting demand and mean interest in alternative destinations, those with more stable policy environments and lower costs than other top study destinations, is increasing.

In Emerging Futures 6, our global cohort of Prospective, Applied, and Current international students ranked ‘high quality of education’ as the top reason behind their first choice of study destination, followed by ‘good employment opportunities after graduation’, ‘safe country for international students’, ‘availability of scholarships’, and ‘institutions are attractive’.

In March 2024, as part of our Emerging Futures 5 research, the top four answers were the same, but the fifth-rated factor was ’part-time work opportunities are good’. This has now dropped out of the top five and could be because the top destinations all now have relatively similar allowable working hours (although USA still does not allow off-campus working in the first year for F-1 visa holders).

Among respondents who had selected their first-choice destination as Canada, ‘the presence of family and friends’ emerged as one of the top five influencing factors, a notable change from Emerging Futures 5 research where it did not feature as prominently. ‘Supports international students’ fell out of the top five for Canada, and this is likely to be attributable to the continued policy changes which occurred there throughout 2024, perhaps leading to student perceptions that Canada is less welcoming.

For those student respondents who had selected the USA as their first-choice destination in Emerging Futures 6, the top three factors remained the same when compared to Emerging Futures 5. However, there has been a change of other influencing factors: ‘part-time work opportunities are good’ moved into fourth (a rise of three positions when compared to March 2024), ‘institutions are attractive’ dropped one position to fifth position and ‘availability of internships’ dropped out of the top five factors.

For Australia, the top three important factors remained the same as they were in our March survey. However, students ranked ‘part-time work opportunities are good’ in fifth position, a drop of one position when compared to Emerging Futures 5. And the ’presence of family and friends’ increased in importance, appearing as the fourth most important factor.

When comparing our Emerging Futures research in March with the August data for students who chose UK as their first-choice destination, we see that the importance of ‘good employment opportunities after graduation’ has dropped from second to fourth. ‘Part time work opportunities are good’ is no longer ranked in the top five factors; however, the UK as a ‘safe country for international students’ has now risen one position to number five. Likewise, the factor ‘institutions are attractive’ has risen to number two in importance from fourth position previously.

Among students who selected New Zealand as their first-choice study destination, the number one influencing factor is that it is a ‘safe country for international students, and this is the same as in the previous survey. ‘High quality of education’ and ‘good employment opportunities after graduation’ are positioned at number two and three – the same as in Emerging Futures 5. The next most important factor for students choosing New Zealand is ‘availability of scholarships’ and ‘ease of obtaining permanent residency’. These factors have changed from the previous survey, in which ‘welcomes people from other countries’ and ‘supports international students’ were at four and five respectively. This indicates a shift in what prospective students value when choosing New Zealand as their first-choice destination.

Our Emerging Futures research helps us to understand international student perceptions of global study destinations and in turn provides an understanding of the motivations and drivers behind student choice.

In Emerging Futures 6, the USA leads across three of the five perception categories we assess: ‘quality of education’, ‘value for money’ and ‘graduate employment opportunities’. However, the USA sits behind Australia and Canada on perceptions of ‘post-study work visa policies’, and scores the lowest behind UK, Canada, New Zealand and Australia for perceptions of ‘international student policies’.

Interestingly, perceptions of the complexity of student visa policies for all the top destination countries (0 = very complicated to 10 = very straightforward) are rated significantly lower than the ratings given for the other four categories, and this won’t have been helped by the number of policy changes and amendments that have occurred across many destination markets recently. The UK was rated as best for student policy, followed by Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and the USA. The low rating for Australia is likely to be due to coverage of the student caps debate and the uncertainty caused by no firm ratification of the policy legislation.

At the time that the Emerging Futures 6 survey was out in the field (between 20 August and 16 September 2024) there was still considerable uncertainty about policy changes in Australia: proposed caps on new international students, high levels of visa rejections, changes to visa rules and PSW eligibility, alongside the doubling of the cost of a visa, meant that many students started to consider other destinations.

For Canada, caps on student numbers were already in place. An increase to the amount of savings required, and changes to PGWP eligibility and availability of work permits for spouses were causing a downturn in desirability which is evidenced by Canada’s declining ratings in perceptions and the number of students making it their first-choice destination.

A Labour government, led by Sir Kier Starmer, came to power in the UK in July 2024. Cabinet members were quick to be vocal in welcoming international students and the new government confirmed its commitment to the Graduate visa (the UK’s PSW route). However, policy changes restricting many students from being eligible to bring dependents with them were not revoked.

In the US, the policy environment had remained stable leading up to our Emerging Futures 6 survey, and this is likely to have been the reason behind an upsurge in students considering and choosing the US as their preferred study destination. However, reports of extreme subjectivity in visa refusals and record highs in rejection rates was a negative. In July, the Biden-Harris administration announced a fast-tracking process for graduates with a confirmed job offer, however, the presidential election in November 2024 meant uncertainty and the possibility (now realised) of a second Trump administration. (An IDP pre-election survey revealed that more than half (54%) of prospective international students said the result of the election would not impact their decision to study in the US. Only a third of respondents said that the outcome would affect their decision).

In our Emerging Futures 6 survey, we asked Prospective and Applied respondents several questions relating to policy to evaluate the extent of influence that policy changes would have or have had.

Financial concerns such as increased amounts of required savings and combined costs of tuition, visa, health cover, and cost of living, are key influences. However, it is the ability to apply for a post-study work visa or permit that is ranked as the top influencing factor, with more than half of the cohort (52%) saying it was a strong influence on their choice of study destination. Similarly, 43% of the cohort told us that having a path to permanent residency was a strong influence. These factors remind us that students at the top of the funnel are thinking about the long-term outcomes following their international education and that being able to find work in their chosen destination after graduation is a significant factor.

At the other end of the scale, only 20% of the cohort said that a change of government in their chosen destination was a strong influencing factor, and 35% of students said it had no influence at all.

While we acknowledge that immigration is an important and divisive topic for governments, we can see that many students are looking for pathways to immigration following their studies. It is therefore important for the sector to ensure the messaging to students about post-study work rights is clear and that we ensure students understand the terms under which permanent residency is (or is not) achievable.

It also remains crucial for the sector and stakeholders to continue lobbying governments to ensure there is a full understanding of how policy changes are likely to affect the appeal of a destination, as well as how any detrimental changes to student recruitment might affect local economies as well as the national economy.

The number of respondents choosing countries, such as Ireland, Germany, Singapore, Malaysia and France, as their first-choice destination grew by 6% year-on-year in Emerging Futures 6. One of the main factors behind increasing interest in alternative options to the traditional ‘big four’ study destinations is unstable and unwelcoming student policies.

Interest in non-traditional destinations, where the policy environments are typically more stable and students have more certainty as to what is on offer and how they will be affected by policy in the longer term, is increasing.

Counsellors have noticed increased concern regarding visas and migration opportunities, particularly among parents. The impact of restrictions and uncertainty for the future are visibly affecting demand.

Our Emerging Futures 6 research shows us that when it came to factors affecting first-choice of destination, ‘supports international students’ fell out of the top five for Canada, and this is likely to be attributable to the continued policy changes which occurred there throughout 2024, perhaps leading to student perceptions that Canada is less welcoming and supportive. While ‘quality of education’ remains the top factor for students choosing any one of the ‘big four’, among students choosing New Zealand, the top factor was ‘safe country for international students’, and this reinforces the importance of students feeling welcome, supported and secure.

Looking at student perceptions of the top four study destinations, student opinions of the complexity of student visa policies were significantly lower than the ratings given for the other four categories we analysed – ‘quality of education’, ‘value for money’, ‘graduate employment opportunities’, and ‘post-study work visa policies’ – and this may be due to the number of policy changes and amendments that have occurred across many destination markets recently. The UK was rated as best for student policy, followed by Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and the USA. The low rating for Australia is likely to be due to coverage of the student caps debate and the uncertainty caused by no firm ratification of the policy legislation.

When the Emerging Futures 6 survey was in the field, Canada had already put caps on new student numbers. An increase to the amount of savings required, and changes to post-graduation work permit (PGWP) eligibility and availability of work permits for spouses have also caused a downturn in desirability which is evidenced by Canada’s declining ratings in perceptions and the number of students making it their first-choice destination.

When we asked students to evaluate the extent to which certain elements of student and graduate policy had on the choice of study destination, it was the policies affecting postgraduation outcomes that had the most impact – ‘ability to apply for post-study visas/permits’ and ‘path to permanent residency’, closely followed by ‘the amount of savings required to be eligible for a student visa’ and ‘student visa fees and associated costs’ had the most impact. The strong influence of factors relating to outcomes reminds us that students at the top of the funnel are thinking about the long-term outcomes following their international education and that being able to find work in their chosen destination after graduation is a significant factor.

Controlling immigration continues to be a primary focus for many governments; however, our research data shows that many students are actively looking for pathways to residency following their studies. Right now, it is crucial that institutions create clear messaging for students about post-study work rights, so they understand the options available to them postgraduation and are able to conform with all legal requirements. Services provided by institutions should include comprehensive information and support for those students/graduates seeking in-country work and visas, so they can seek out the best opportunities whilst remaining within the terms of their visa/permit.

It also remains crucial for the sector and stakeholders to continue lobbying governments to ensure there is a full understanding of how policy changes are likely to affect the appeal of a destination and what the effects of reduced student recruitment will have on local economies, as well as the national economy.

James Inzani, IDP Client Director said, “Certainly in the UK, more needs to be done to understand the outcomes of international students; do they stay here, do they travel to other countries, do they go home, what jobs do they do, what businesses and jobs do they create, and what benefits do all of these outcomes have for local communities as well as the nation as a whole. If the government understands the value of international students, then policies might reflect this. It is incumbent upon the sector to champion the worth of international students and graduates, so that the UK is able to remain desirable, welcoming and a great return on investment.”

When thinking about recruitment, we have seen that students are considering more destinations when making their decisions about where to study. To understand which destinations might be right for them means they are seeking clear information and guidance on student experience from their preferred sources (look out for more on this in our upcoming article on media preferences and the power of peer-to-peer content).

To evaluate the effectiveness of your marketing and recruitment strategies, contact the IDP team for a chat.