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The start of a new academic year is a good time to take stock of trends from the previous 12 months to help predict what the next recruitment cycle may look like and plan accordingly. The UK has done particularly well in terms of recruiting international students throughout the pandemic years and has already reached its target of welcoming over 600,000 international students, 10 years before the government target of reaching this number by 2030. However, now that COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted in countries like Australia and New Zealand, the playing field is likely to become increasingly level.

UK institutions need to work harder to maintain their popularity among prospective international students in the long term. A good starting point is to understand the needs and preferences of international students from different source markets.

Post-study work opportunities are for instance more important to Indian and Nigerian students compared to Chinese students, which means that institutions should differentiate their marketing approaches regionally.

Understanding demand trends for subjects and labour market gaps across source markets is another way to tailor marketing campaigns that speak to the needs of prospective students in different countries.

US, Canada and UK are the highest-demand study destinations - Australia on the rise

Our IQ Demand tool, which tracks the research behaviour of 100m+ prospective international students using our suite of student sites each year, shows that competition has been tight over the last 12 months between the top three shareholding study destinations – the US, Canada and the UK.

Canada and the US were on a par towards the end of last year before the US took the lead. From about March this year, the UK has been making headway, overtaking Canada in July and now claiming the second highest percentage share of all destinations.

Since September 2021 till the end of August 2022, Australia’s percentage share has gradually increased from 11.33% to 14.45%, perhaps an indication that more prospective students are likely to consider Australia again as a study destination now that COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted.

What will be interesting is to see how demand for both Australia and New Zealand changes in the coming months, given that both countries have lifted restrictions.

High growth in demand for UK from Turkey and Nigeria

Considering the global picture, India has had the highest percentage share (12.57% at the end of the 12-month period) of all source markets, followed by Indonesia and Brazil. Thailand has seen a drop from 8.46% at the beginning of the 12-month period to 4.82% towards the end.

Looking at demand for the UK only, overall, India and Indonesia have been the top two source markets over the last 12 months in terms of share, followed by Thailand and Turkey. Big strides have been made by Turkey, climbing into second position above Indonesia towards the very end of the 12-month period. Even though Nigeria only placed in 6th position for market share, it saw substantial growth in the last 12 months, climbing from 2.42% to 5.61%.

For the next recruitment cycle, UK institutions need to nurture the high demand from markets like Indonesia. Demand from Indonesia has been steady for the UK, but with Australia reopening its borders, more Indonesian students are likely to choose neighbouring Australia as a study destination going forward. UK institutions should thus maintain their position by actively marketing scholarship opportunities, promoting the Graduate Route Visa, and showcasing the cultural riches of the UK.

Source-market cities: Bangkok highest demand for UK

Interestingly, the source-market city with the highest percentage share for the UK over the last 12 months was Bangkok with 3.97% of share, followed by Lagos with 3.36% and Istanbul with 2.9%. For Bangkok, Lagos and Istanbul, Health and Medicine was the subject area that drove the highest percentage of demand. Of these three cities, Lagos placed highest in share for Health and Medicine at 31.97%. Jakarta, which had the fourth highest demand for the UK, had Business and Administrative Studies as its most-in-demand subject area with Health and Medicine in third position.

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Franki Clemens20 September 2022
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