Looking ahead to the January Application Deadline 24/25

As we approach the middle of November, student research is at its peak and universities begin to closely monitor their student enquiries and open day registrations as key indicators of demand for this cycle alongside early applications. This period provides valuable insights into trends that will shape the January application deadline and beyond. 

At IDP, this is also the time we keep a close eye on our website traffic across Whatuni and the Complete University Guide to see which institutions and courses are experiencing growth or decline in demand and how January deadline volume may look.  

Before we look at subject trends though, it’s worth considering the wider landscape of UK domestic recruitment and the recent trends that help inform what we can expect for the 2024/25 January application deadline and beyond. 

In recent years and reaffirmed in 2023, UCAS reported that by 2030 we could see up to a million students apply for higher education (HE) across the full range of Level 4 and above opportunities (UK and international undergraduate). This projection assumed a 60% increase in international students by the end of the decade and continued growth in the 18-year-old entry rate. However, a sustained cost of living crisis amongst other factors has resulted in year-on-year declines in the total number of UCAS applications since 2021 and the UK 18-year-old entry rate into HE has declined in the same period. 

The rising number of 18-year-olds continues to fuel growth in applications from this age group. However, a decreasing entry rate has tempered this growth, while the economic climate has driven a sharper decline in applications from mature students (aged 19+), which is the primary factor behind the overall drop in application volume. 

Based on recent trends, including the (albeit small) increase in tuition fees and the continued cost of living crisis faced by students, we can assume that entry rate is unlikely to jump up significantly.  

Historically (over the past 10 years) the shift in application entry rate has not exceeded 2%, with the exception of 2020 where it jumped up by 3.1%. In the current climate, it seems realistic to assume entry rates will stay relatively flat this year. 

With this in mind, and considering ONS population estimates showing nearly 13,000 additional 18-year-olds in 2025, we can anticipate an additional pool of over 5,000 18-year-old applicants. While this figure doesn’t align precisely with the academic year, it serves as a helpful indicator. 

However, we shouldn’t expect a recovery in the volume of mature students quite yet, and further declines from this audience is feasible which may offset the continued growth of 18-year-olds. It’s therefore essential that institutions target school leavers and go further with their school outreach efforts.  

Comparing demand, by which we mean search views and interactions across IDP sites, from August to October (excluding Clearing searches) versus the same period in the previous year, we can see encouraging signs with 4.4% growth in demand volume. 

A closer look at sub-discipline demand across August to October shows some interesting trends this year. When focusing on the top 30 sub-disciplines (based on search volume), the sub-discipline with the biggest growth in demand year-on-year is Nursing. We also see similar growth in Midwifery demand but this is not shown below as it falls short of making the top 30 by overall volume. Other Health and Medicine sub-disciplines are also seeing strong demand growth including Dental Services, Physical Therapies, Medical Technology and Pharmacology. 

Creative Arts schools may experience positive growth this year, with Art Studies, Fashion, and Building Design/Architecture all ranking among the top 10 growth areas. Interestingly, Computer Science is notably absent from this list—a field that has been a major growth area in recent years. In fact, demand for Computer Science has decreased by 5%, suggesting that interest in this subject may have peaked in 2023. 

The data above shows that despite the current economic climate, there are strong indicators of growth potential in key areas.  

Contact us for detailed insights on which sub-disciplines are experiencing growth or decline, including course-level demand trends, and learn how IDP Education can help your institution achieve its targets.