A-Level and GCSE Trends Signal Key Implications for Domestic Recruitment

New data on provisional A-Level entries for summer 2025 reveals a subtle but meaningful shift in student subject preferences—trends that could shape the higher education landscape in the coming years. 

Despite a 3.8% increase in the 18-year-old population, overall A-Level entries have declined slightly by 0.4%. This is unexpected, particularly in light of a 3% rise in UCAS applications from 18-year-olds for 2025 compared to 2024. The data suggests a shifting landscape in post-16 education choices, with more students possibly pursuing vocational qualifications, apprenticeships, or other alternative pathways outside the traditional A-Level route. 

So where has the growth in applications come from? The Department for Education confirmed 25,508 learners began T Level programmes in 2024/25, marking a 59% increase from the 16,085 students who started in 2023/24. It’s also worth noting that in the same academic year, apprenticeship starts in England rose to over 202,000, with particularly strong growth in higher and degree-level apprenticeships. While these routes are not included in UCAS application figures, they represent an important and growing part of the post-16 education landscape. 

Despite growing uptake and government backing, some universities still do not accept T Levels for many degree courses, particularly in Medicine but also in subjects like Law and Engineering. These exclusions often stem from concerns about the narrow occupational focus of T Levels, the absence of traditional academic content (e.g. A-Level Maths or Science). However, the latest figures demonstrate that T Levels are becoming a significant and rapidly expanding pathway for post-16 students. This growth, alongside strong pass rates and a high proportion of learners progressing to higher education, suggests it is time for universities to re-evaluate their policies and ensure fair consideration of T Level applicants, particularly where course content aligns with degree subject matter. Failing to do so risks excluding a diverse, skilled, and employer-ready cohort from higher education opportunity. 

The subject-level data from Ofqual’s provisional A-Level and GCSE entries also highlights some interesting trends. When reviewed alongside the course search data we hold at IDP, a clearer picture begins to emerge around where demand is growing. First, let’s take a quick look at A-Level entries. These figures – representing students sitting A-level exams in summer 2025 - help explain the UCAS application trends observed so far and also carry important implications for clearing: 

• STEM Resurgence: Maths saw a 5% increase in A-Level entries and Further Maths rose by 7.5%. Physics increased by 4%, and Chemistry by 2% 

• Business and Economics Boom: Economics A-Level entries surged by 6%, while Business Studies continued its multi-year climb 

• Humanities and Languages Decline: History and Geography both fell by 6%, English Literature declined by 5% and French and German saw steep drops of 8% and 7% respectively 

• Psychology and Biology Decline: Both subjects slipped by 3% and 4% in A-Level entries 

The uptick in STEM and Business entries is reflected in UCAS applications with mathematical sciences, physical sciences and engineering are all up in January, most likely driven by demand for employment in the tech, engineering, and data science sectors. 

A further look at our own IDP data and what students are searching for in the last 3 months, helps us understand how STEM and Business A Level entry growth is driving what sub-disciplines students want to study at university. At this time of year, search trends also start to give us early indications of subject preference trends ahead of the 2025/26 cycle, particularly if we look at the year-on-year growth and decline of sub-discipline search. 

Firstly, we see Computer Science remains the most searched-for sub-discipline despite a decline in share versus 2024. Business, Accounting and Management have all seen growth in demand and although not shown above, there has also been growth across many of the engineering sub-disciplines. This indicates that STEM and Business focus at A-level is translating to university course demand in corresponding areas.  Looking further ahead, Ofqual’s provisional GCSE entry data gives us an early indication of whether these patterns are likely to continue further down the pipeline - and the signs strongly suggest they will.  

GCSE entries 

• Computing + 12.3 % 

• Business Studies + 4.2 % 

• French − 4.0 % | German − 7.1 % 

• Maths + 0.3 %  

The implications are a pipeline swelling for digital, business and applied STEM courses - while the language drought deepens.  

1. Re-balance capacity  Invest resource into STEM, Economics and Business 

2. Meet the Apprenticeship & T Level wave  Create industry co-designed degree-apprenticeships and revisit any blanket exclusions of T Level applicants 

3. Embed employability end-to-end  Integrate micro-credentials and live industry projects across curricula—especially in subjects losing share. 

4. Stabilise languages  Consider alternative delivery for languages such as though optional credit-bearing modules or as separate micro-credential ‘add-ons’  

5. Data-driven recruitment  Explore IDP’s search analytics to understand at a more granular level how growth in Business and STEM A-Levels is translating into course demand to identify opportunities in clearing and the 2025/26 cycle 

Contact us for more information about how IDP can support your institution with understanding domestic and international student demand.