UK Domestic: Top-of-the-funnel demand reflected in UCAS End of Cycle 2024 trends

Last week, the UCAS end of Cycle 2024 data was released, offering valuable insights into the trends in subject growth and decline across the UK domestic market. For us at IDP, we’re particularly focused on comparing the trends we identified in our demand data (student search across Whatuni and the Complete University Guide websites) in 2023 to understand how top-of-the-funnel demand translated through to undergraduate applications and enrolments. 

Here's an overview of the headline findings: 

• A record number of UK 18-year-olds have accepted a place at university or college in 2024, up 2.9% vs 2023 

• UK mature acceptances (aged 21+) also increased compared to 2023 

• More students are choosing to use Clearing to find a new course or destination 

• High Tariff Institutions took the lion's share of sector growth as lower and middle tariff institutions see overall declines 

• The proportion of main scheme applicants who received an offer is up from 67% to 70%  

The growth of 18-year-old acceptances was anticipated given the growth of the demographic and A-Level entries (as previously reported by IDP). However, the standout finding here is really the growth of the UK mature audience (21+), this was not expected, and this group had been in decline. Growth across both groups is an encouraging sign for the sector. 

The rise in the number of UK domestic students opting for Clearing, has been widely noted, including a year-on-year increase of 11% self-releasing i.e. releasing from their firm offer and entering clearing. In fact, there has been a 58% increase in UK domestic self-releases since 2019 as more students are deciding to shop around or trade up in clearing. This trend favoured higher tariff institutions who were more active in clearing in 2024 placing more ‘Main Scheme Clearing’ students (applied in Main Scheme but entered clearing) than we have seen historically, whilst lower and medium tariff institutions saw an overall decline in Main Scheme Clearing students.  

At a subject level, we largely see a continuation of some of the trends in 2023: 

All of the top 10 sub-disciplines listed above for volume growth also grew in 2023 with the exception of Mechanical Engineering.  

The sub-disciplines with the biggest growth in 2024 enrolments were in Law and Accounting, reflecting IDP’s demand data across WhatUni and the Complete University Guide in September 2023 earlier in the cycle, which indicated these two areas to be within the top three for search volume growth. Law and Accounting demand continues to be high across our sites with both featuring in the top 5 sub-disciplines for year-on-year growth (user volume, September to November 2024). 

Computer Science has grown strongly in both 2023 and in 2024 and the related sub-discipline of Artificial Intelligence, whilst not in the chart above for biggest volume change, had the biggest year-on-year percentage growth (excluding smaller subjects with fewer than 1,000 acceptances). However, IDP’s article in November which looked ahead to the January application deadline, highlighted that Computer Science demand has decreased by 5% year-on-year (August to October) and this trend has sustained into November indicating that Computer Science may have peaked in 2024 and we can expect a slight decline in volume here for 2025.  

At the other end of the spectrum, Sociology and Psychology acceptances have declined significantly. Again, IDP demand data showed Psychology to be the sub-discipline with the biggest declines in search volume in September 2023 and this has been reflected ultimately in 2024 applications and enrolments. Both Sociology and Psychology have seen a decline in A-Level entries for 2024 so this is a trend we can expect to continue. (Provisional Ofqual A Level Entries). 

The number of 18-year-olds choosing Subjects Allied to Medicine is also at a record high. This growth is in Midwifery, Children, Adult and Mental Health Nursing. We also see continued growth in demand across IDP sites for Nursing which is up 11.7% (September – November, year-on-year). However, it should be noted that across all age groups UCAS enrolments in Adult Nursing and Midwifery are in fact down and Adult Nursing appears in the chart above for areas of largest decline indicating continued challenges in attracted mature students into these areas. 

The growth in undergraduate domestic acceptances in 2024, along with an increase in the entry rate from 35.7% to 36.4% following two years of entry rate declines is positive news for the sector and would indicate strong recruitment potential for this cycle. However, a key takeaway is the intensifying competition for students, with increased offer making and heightened activity in Clearing from the high-tariff institutions. 

Contact us for more information about how IDP Connect can support your institution with identifying where demand exists as we approach the January deadline